Within five years: the tensions between states and regions of these states has increased. Global growth slowed. A growing terrorist threat with various forms, against which states will have even more difficulty to fight.
The CIA imagines three possible scenarios:
A world of islands.
A world with almost zero growth, a globalization at half-mast. States are becoming worried and building more and more walls against immigration and terrorism. This phenomenon creates isolated islands. Then follows the rise of populism, protectionist measures. Unemployment continues to rise.
Artificial intelligences have taken a large place in the daily lives of people. A period of growth appears twenty years later. Technological innovation profoundly changes the world of work. Man collaborates much more with machines. Governments that have kept their talents in technology will be the ones that will thrive the most.
A world of orbits.
The tensions between the différent blocks have never been so high. Russia, China and Iran have been able to impose their military, political and economic domination, each on its own region of influence. The alternative facts have an important part, to the point that the truth about the global geopolitical situation is hidden from the populations in Western countries.
The situation will worsen when, after twenty years, the United States breaks down and decides to act internationally, creating a return to the cold war. A war between India and Pakistan employs for the first time since the Second World War the nuclear bomb. China and the United States manage to defuse the conflict. International security is once again at the heart of the debate.
A world of communities.
Local groups have become more influential than national governments. Due mainly to a loss of confidence in the leaders of the States. Governments only deal with foreign affairs and military operations, that is, national defense abroad. Other policies such as economics, education, and health become the responsibility of local authorities. The companies now largely represent these authorities. In the Middle East, a new Arab Spring appears. In China and Russia, it is always the state that has the hand on the people.